Extremes

About Extremes

The overall aim of Extremes is to identify the potential impacts of extreme climate events on Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) and Special Protection Areas (SPAs) in Ireland and inform future research needs in this regard. Pressures on on ecosystems and biodiversity in terms of pollution and habitat fragmentation from a range of land-use and other anthropogenic drivers including extreme climate events are contributing to an unprecedented global decline in biodiversity across ecosystems.

Climate change brings a suite of additional pressures to the existing multi-stressor environment that have the potential to alter ecosystems at every level of functioning and this will further challenge efforts to stem biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation and demand a rethink of how we address conservation goals and management of protected habitats and species. Disturbances to ecosystems by climate change can be described in terms of a press (long term) and pulse (extreme events) framework. Extreme events are defined as low frequency (often noted as events that fall outside the 5th–95th percentile of the historical range of variability), intense events that rarely occur at a given location. Such events linked to anthropogenic climate change include heat waves, forest and peatland fires, snowstorms, severe frosts, drought, intense precipitation, inland and coastal flooding and storm surges.

In Ireland, climate change is expected to contribute to increased mean annual temperatures, heavy rainfall events and more intense storms and by the middle of this century, summer heatwaves are expected to occur more frequently and precipitation is expected to become more variable, with substantial projected increases in the occurrence of both dry periods and heavy precipitation events. A strong evidence base of the potential impacts of climate change on various components of ecosystems from species and communities to ecological processes is now beginning to emerge andExtremeswill review and synthesise this literature to explore the likely range and nature of extreme climate events of relevance to SACs and SPAs in Ireland. In this context, the primary objective of Extremes is to assess the vulnerability and risk posed by climatic extremes to these SACs and SPAs.